Heatwave Resurgence 2025: Will Saudi Arabia’s new adaptation measures mitigate heat stress?

Heatwave Resurgence 2025: Will Saudi Arabia’s new adaptation measures mitigate heat stress?

Author: Fateh Tahir 

Every year millions of Muslims flock to Makkah to perform Hajj, an annual pilgrimage and one of the most important events on the Islamic calendar. In recent years with the advent of anthropogenic climate change, a variety of extreme weather events have  become commonplace across the globe.

In Saudi Arabia’s case, the Kingdom contends with extreme heat events which are particularly concerning during Hajj when pilgrims are streaming into Makkah and are for the most part exposed to heat when performing different rituals that are a part of the pilgrimage. To illustrate the extent of the challenges faced by Saudi Arabia we need only look as far back as last years Hajj. A staggering 1300 fatalities were reported, and the causes can largely be attributed to inordinately high levels of humid heat which exceeding human tolerance caused extreme heat stress and the eventual death of pilgrims. Given current adaptation and mitigation efforts and the ambition of existing targets the world is headed to 2.6°C warming above pre-industrial revolution levels therefore extreme heat will increase inexorably until the end of the century which means more adversities for Hajj pilgrims. It’s also important to state that last year’s extreme heat event had in a certain sense been predicted by climate scientists.

In 2021, climate scientists found that in 1.5◦C and 2 ◦C warmer worlds the probability of heat stress exceeding human tolerance thresholds is exceptionally high, therefore it comes as no surprise that with 2024 being the warmest year on record it brought along extreme heat events such as the one in Makkah. As stated before, given the lack of ambition in current climate action, the world will only continue to warm therefore last year’s mass mortality heatwave is only the beginning of what’s to come as the century progresses. Such exacerbating heat extremes mean that the Hajj pilgrimage is threatened by climate change and alleviating pilgrims from such conditions requires urgent climate action by the Saudi government and the global community.

Furthermore, the immediate response by the Kingdom involves a variety of different fixes to prevent a recurrence of last years event. It was estimated by Saudi agencies that most of last year’s deaths were unregistered elderly pilgrims with underlying conditions, to curtail this factor a widespread crackdown was initiated on unregistered worshippers. The use of Artificial Intelligence has also been recruited to help process data gathered by drones monitoring processions and new health monitoring devices which will be offered to pilgrims so that authorities may keep track of their vitals and detect signs of heat exhaustion beforehand. The Saudi authorities have also increased shaded area by tens of thousands of square meters, deployed hundreds of cooling units and rostered thousands of medics and extra officials to ensure a prevention of last year’s catastrophe.

While these fixes should be acknowledged as a step in the direction of climate adaptation, whether they address the underlying issues which drive climate catastrophes such as extreme heat is a point worth analysing. Essentially, are such measures sustainable as extreme heat continues to exacerbate into the century? How long can the Saudi government continue expanding shaded areas and installing more cooling units which with the energy consumption inherent in construction and operation will only contribute to further emissions.

The underlying issue of climate change is better addressed through mitigation efforts. Simply put, this would require an immediate reduction in the emission of heat-trapping greenhouse gases which Saudi Arabia massively contributes to directly and indirectly. Being one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel exporters, any serious attempt to moderate fossil fuel consumption and trade would significantly assist the global effort to meet warming targets set by the Paris Agreement. Mitigation efforts to reduce warming to 1.5◦C would reduce the probability of extreme heat events and the inherent mass mortality by half of what can be expected under 2 ◦C warming scenarios, a point worth noting by the Saudi government as it plans to increase the number of Hajj pilgrims.

To conclude, while adaptation efforts by the government should be acknowledged, they do not address the underlying problem of warming and how Saudi Arabia contributes to it. Adaptation by the introduction of more construction in Makkah and the installation of more cooling units would only contribute to further emission and therefore a cycle of negligence would take hold. It must be reiterated that we cannot ignore the significance of mitigation efforts, only these lead to a direct reduction in emissions and therefore reduce the risk of extreme heat. At this crossroads, the decisions made by the Saudi government and the global community will determine whether events like last year’s extreme heat become the new normal. Observations from this year’s Hajj should serve as further motivation to address extreme heat, during the Arafat ritual on June 5th, temperatures reached 45 degrees however a week later on the 12th of June, temperatures soared to an alarming 47.2 degrees indicating how minor the margins are with extreme heat and why it must be urgently addressed through mitigation.

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