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Paris Agreement Overshooting-Reversibility, Climate Impacts, and Adaptation Needs (PROVIDE)

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programe under grant  agreement No. 101003687

Lead: Upper Indus Basin-Pakistan

Paris Agreement Overshooting

Background: 

The 1.5°C Paris Agreement temperature goal provides the benchmark for global climate action to avoid the most devastating impacts of climate change. However, under current trajectories, overshooting (meaning the temporary exceedance of 1.5°C) the Paris temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility. The impacts of such overshoot scenarios would be particularly consequential for vulnerable regions and systems. Here, even in the case of only a temporary exceedance of 1.5°C, thresholds of abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts or adaptation limits may be exceeded. The PROVIDE project aims to deliver information on overshoot scenarios and respective impacts in the context of adaptation through an innovative web tool, where the risks of overshooting systemic thresholds (e.g. glacier melt) from the local to the global level can be accessed. Moving beyond a limited set of climate scenarios, the PROVIDE approach allows to make thresholds the starting point for the analysis and adaptation planning.

The PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard is an online platform providing detailed information on overshoot scenarios and expected impacts and their reversibility, with unique sectoral coverage including extreme events, biodiversity, cryosphere, sea level rise, agriculture, economic damages, socio-economic vulnerabilities among others. The information includes global, national and city level modelling results. The design and the presentation of the data is currently co developed together with stakeholders.

An overshoot proofing module for adaptation planning will be made available for adaptation planners. The Overshoot Proofing Methodology is co-developed together with a diverse group of stakeholders within the PROVIDE project.

Objectives:

  • Produce global multi-scenario, multi-sectoral climate information
  • Co-develop a generalizable Overshoot Proofing Methodology
  • Identify and prioritize adaptation needs in 4 Iconic Regions
  • Integrate all project outcomes into a Climate Risk Dashboard

Activities:

Organized into seven work-packages (WPs), WP1 & 2 provided a multi-scenario framework and biophysical impact projections. The development of specific impact emulators allowed regional climate projects and the analysis of the (ir)reversibility of impacts under overshoot pathways. The results fed into the PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard developed in WP5. WP3 & 4 focused on overshoot adaptation and policy and regional pertinent impacts of overshoot. The aim was to develop an overshoot proofing module that was made available via the PROVIDE Climate Services Dashboard developed by WP5. In depth work in four Iconic Regions was built on the work in WP2 & 3 and focused on one urban area within each region. The outcomes of WP1-4 were synthesized into the PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard and its Regional and Overshoot Proofing Modules. WP6 coordinated all co-development, dissemination, communication, and exploitation activities including stakeholder engagement and WP7 included the overall project management of PROVIDE.

Services:

  • Regional hydrological modelling/simulations over the region of the Upper Indus Basin (IR3) using a semi-distributed watershed model.
  • Lead WP4 related activities in the iconic region Upper Indus Basin and iconic city Islamabad.
  • Stock-taking of regional and local climate risks and overshoot adaptation challenges, publish a literature review report for further uptake by other WPs in the project.
  • Improve the understanding of pertinent socio-ecological impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation challenges of global overshoot pathways for iconic region and city, with focus on heat stress impacts.
  • Identify and assess key risks, thresholds and potential responses to global overshoot pathways in urban adaptation planning for the iconic region and city.
  • Collaborate with consortium partners for assessment of the spatial structural profile and urban strategic structure of each IC embedded in the regional environment.
  • Collaborate for modelling/co-development of overshoot adaptation scenarios and then refinement and tailoring of the PROVIDE Overshoot Proofing Methodology for planning at the regional and local level.
  • Lead and organize local/regional stakeholder engagement events.
  • Provide input data, feedback on designing and assistance to set up and develop climate risk dashboard.
  • Set up the adaptation module for the climate risk dashboard for the iconic city (IC) of Islamabad of IR3.
  • Stakeholder consultation and co-development was an integral part of all the above activities, which not only involved filling up the knowledge gaps but also capacity development of the adaptation policy makers, practitioners, implementation partners, academicians, researchers, civil society, and other relevant stakeholders.

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK (ADB) PROJECTS:

Developing Resilient Environments and Advancing Municipal Services (DREAMS)
ADB-55236 -001

Punjab, Pakistan

Objectives:

  • Provision of climate-resilient water supply infrastructure and services in Rawalpindi
  • Development of low-carbon, integrated solid waste management services implemented in Bahawalpur
  • Institutional and capacity development for climate resilience, gender inclusiveness, and sustainability

Activities:

The project supported inclusive, resilient, and sustainable urban infrastructure and services in two rapidly growing cities in Punjab Provinces—Rawalpindi and Bahawalpur—by (i) expanding and modernizing urban water supply systems in Rawalpindi and solid waste collection, treatment, and disposal in Bahawalpur; and (ii) strengthening institutional capacity in service delivery to improve the quality, coverage, efficiency, and reliability of these services, as well as the financial sustainability of the utilities. The project aimed to benefit up to 1.5 million urban dwellers in Punjab, the most populous province of the country.

The project conceptualization phase involved the development of several documents like Safeguards Due Diligence Reports, Resettlement Plans, Safeguards Due Diligence Reports, and assessments such as; Initial Environmental Examination, Initial Poverty and Social Analysis, Gender Action Plan etc. A detailed report called the Project/Program Administration Manual entails several elements of the project such as climate assessment, climate risk assessment and alignment with the Paris Agreement.

Services Provided:

  • A literature based initial screening of the prevalent climate hazards at the project sites.
  • A Climate Change Assessment report, for inclusion in the Report and Recommendation to the President, entailing an assessment of the prevalent climate hazards, social vulnerabilities and exposure of the population in the project areas, and adaptation measures that will be adopted.
  • Calculation of project climate finance amount for mitigation and adaptation in accordance with Guidance Note on Counting Climate Finance at ADB, and joint methodology for tracking adaptation finance.
  • A Paris Agreement Alignment report to ensure that the components of the project are fully aligned to both the mitigation and adaptation goals in accordance with the ADB Guidelines on Paris Agreement Alignment and national climate commitments e.g. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs), Long-Term Strategies (LTCs), National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), and Action Plans to propose and strengthen mitigation measures. 
  • Formulated a detailed Climate Risk Assessment based on the IPCC’s risk framework based on the interplay of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure through two approaches.
         a. Indices were developed for each component through indicators such as; hazard indicators at several Global Warming Levels (based on an ensemble           of high-resolution climate models) and future projections of social vulnerabilities (housing material, literacy, ages) and exposure of the population               (population density). Risk Index was determined for both the cities of Rawalpindi and Bahawalpur at 5 GWLs.
          b. A Union Council wise risk mapping of both cities was provided based on several indicators for vulnerability (road network, sanitation, vegetation                  coverage), exposure and hazards.
  • A vulnerability assessment of the components/outcomes of the project for the prevalent hazards.

Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Corridor Development Investment Program (Tranche 3) - ADB-48404-005

KPK and Punjab-Pakistan

Objectives:

  • Extension of the N-55 to include a four-lane climate resilient carriageway, service stations and disaster risk management areas with climate resilient designs at two points along the N 55. The project will extend 209 km and 122 km of the DG Khan-DI khan and Rajanpur-DG khan sections along the N-55.
  • Capacity building of the National Highway Authority through training of technical staff and inclusivity in staff inductions.

Services Provided:

  • A literature based initial screening of the prevalent climate hazards at the project sites.
  • A Climate Change Assessment report, for inclusion in the Report and Recommendation to the President, entailing an assessment of the prevalent climate hazards, social vulnerabilities and exposure of the population in the project areas, and adaptation measures that will be adopted.
  • Calculation of project climate finance amount for mitigation and adaptation in accordance with Guidance Note on Counting Climate Finance at ADB, and joint methodology for tracking adaptation finance.
  • A Paris Agreement Alignment report to ensure that the components of the project are fully aligned to both the mitigation and adaptation goals in accordance with the ADB Guidelines on Paris Agreement Alignment and national climate commitments e.g. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs), Long-Term Strategies (LTCs), National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), and Action Plans to strengthen mitigation measures.
  • Formulated a detailed Climate Risk Assessment based on the IPCC’s risk framework based on the interplay of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure through the development of a risk index. Flooding hotspots were determined based on hydrological modelling. Climate models were employed to gauge the maximum outflow at all hotspots. All indices were calculated for all the hotspots for two time periods, historical and projected. Climate models were employed to gauge the maximum outflow at all hotspots.
  • A vulnerability assessment of the components/outcomes of the project for the prevalent hazards.

Sindh Secondary Education Improvement Project - Additional Financing (SSEIP-AF)
ADB-51126-004

Sindh, Pakistan

Objectives:

  • Climate resilient reconstruction and rehabilitation of 1,000 flood damaged schools in the 15 most affected tehsils of Sindh province after the 2022 floods.
  • Increasing the teaching capacity for five key subjects.
  • Strengthening the secondary education system.

Services Provided:

  • A literature based initial screening of the prevalent climate hazards at the project sites.
  • A Climate Change Assessment report, for inclusion in the Report and Recommendation to the President, entailing an assessment of the prevalent climate hazards, social vulnerabilities and exposure of the population in the project area, and adaptation measures that will be adopted.
  • Calculation of project climate finance amount for mitigation and adaptation in accordance with Guidance Note on Counting Climate Finance at ADB, and joint methodology for tracking adaptation finance.
  • A Paris Agreement Alignment report to ensure that the components of the project are fully aligned to both the mitigation and adaptation goals in accordance with the ADB Guidelines on Paris Agreement Alignment and national climate commitments e.g. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs), Long-Term Strategies (LTCs), National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), and Action Plans to strengthen mitigation measures.
  • An analysis of the projected changes in extreme Heat Wave Frequency Index (HWFI) and maximum five-day precipitation index (RX5day) for different SSPs using multiple temperature and precipitation extreme indices based on an Multi Model Ensemble (MME) from 21 GCMs that participated in Phase 6 of Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) over province of Sindh.
  • A comprehensive Climate Risk Management Framework for the Project Administration Manual entailing comprehensive strategies to manage risk and increase resilience to the prevalent hazards in the province. These included climate adaptation strategies such as; nature based solutions, flood protection and evacuation, capacity building of the stakeholders, and early warning systems.

Bash Wind Power Project - ADB-56085-001

Bukhara, Uzbekistan

Objectives:

  • The project involved the design, construction, maintenance, and operation of a 500 MW grid connected wind power project.
  • Construction of 162.5-kilometer overhead transmission line in a remote area of Bukhara region in Uzbekistan.

Services Provided:

  • Provision of technical assistance using the BB2 assessment criteria of Joint MDB Methodological Framework for the Assessment of Paris Alignment and ADB’s Climate Risk Assessment Framework.
  • Formulation of a comprehensive Climate Risk Assessment report following the IPCC risk assessment framework and ADB’s Climate Risk Assessment Framework. It established climate-related vulnerability and risks, identified exposure to physical climate risks, and provided climate resilient measures to improve climate risk management by all stakeholders. The report consists of the following sections:
        a. Detailed historical analysis of pervasive hazards at the project site/area along with assessing projections of the selected hazards using online tools.
        b. The exposure and vulnerability assessment of each of the project components to all prevalent hazards.
        c. A Risk Matrix that classified the risk to each component by each hazard as extreme/moderate/low based on the vulnerability and exposure     
           assessment.
        d. A comprehensive list of adaptation measures tailored for each hazard faced by each component along with a timeline for adopting these measures.

Sindh Emergency Housing Reconstruction Project - ADB-57323-001

Sindh, Pakistan

Objectives:

  • Reconstruction of 2022 Flood Damaged Houses and Community Infrastructure with Multi hazard Resilient, Environment-responsive Designs
  • Livelihoods Recovery Programs for Flood-affected Houses Implemented
  • Enhancing Community Resilience

Services Provided:

  • A Climate Change Assessment report, for inclusion in the Report and Recommendation to the President, entailing an assessment of the prevalent climate hazards, social vulnerabilities and exposure of the population in the project area, and adaptation measures that will be adopted.
  • Calculation of project climate finance amount for mitigation and adaptation in accordance with Guidance Note on Counting Climate Finance at ADB, and joint methodology for tracking adaptation finance.
  • A Paris Agreement Alignment report to ensure that the components of the project are fully aligned to both the mitigation and adaptation goals in accordance with the ADB Guidelines on Paris Agreement Alignment and national climate commitments e.g. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs), Long-Term Strategies (LTCs), National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), and Action Plans to strengthen mitigation measures.
  • Formulated a detailed Climate Risk Assessment based on the IPCC’s risk framework based on the interplay of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure through the development of a risk index. The hazard index was calculated by estimating the heat indicator (TXx and WSDI90) and flood indicator (Rx1day) for all the concerned districts for the historical (1980-2014) and future time period (2030-2050) using RCMs. Exposure and vulnerability for 21 districts was assessed using social indicators. Risk index was calculated for all the project districts for two time periods, historical and projected.
  • A comprehensive Climate Risk Management Framework for the Project Administration Manual entailing comprehensive strategies to manage risk and increase resilience to the prevalent hazards in the province. These included climate adaptation strategies such as; use of local knowledge and materials for construction, nature based solutions, flood protection and evacuation, capacity building of the stakeholders, and early warning systems.
  • Formulated a carbon footprint report for the project activities.

ADB Private Sector Operations Projects

Bangladesh, Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Cambodia, Vanuatu, India

Muktagacha Solar Power Project

Country: Bangladesh
Sector: Renewable Energy Infrastructure

The Muktagacha Solartech Energy Limited aimed to set up a 20 MW solar power plant at Muktagacha site in Mymensingh district of Bangladesh. Upon completion, the solar plant will transmit power to the nearby 33/11 kV (Kilovolt) Muktagacha substation at Ramchandrapur through a 33 kV and 8km (kilometer) long double circuit transmission line.

Sonagazi Solar Power Project

Country: Bangladesh
Sector: Renewable Energy Infrastructure

The Sonagazi Solar Power Project in Chattogram, Bangladesh, led by Sonagazi Solar Power Limited (SSPL), aimed to establish a 50 MW solar power plant connected to the Baraiyarhat substation via a 132kV transmission line. The project’s construction start date is anticipated to be in December 2024 or 2025.

Nukus II Wind and Battery Energy Storage Project

Country: Uzbekistan
Sector: Renewable Energy Infrastructure

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) aimed to assist in the development of the Nukus II Wind and Battery Energy Storage Project near Nukus, Republic of Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan. The project comprised a 200 MW wind power plant, a 100 MWh Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), and evacuation infrastructure (EI). The EI consisted of a 42-44 km long overhead transmission line and the expansion of a 220 KV switchyard and Beruniy substation.

Orchlon School Green Campus Expansion Project Climate Risk (and Adaptation) Assessment

Country: Mongolia
Sector: Education

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) assisted in expansion of Orchlon school education facility in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. The ‘Orchlon School Green Campus Expansion Project’ involved the construction and operation of a school annex which will be Mongolia’s first internationally recognized green certification in the private education sector.

AZE Banka 315 MWac Solar Power Project

Country: Azerbaijan
Sector: Renewable Energy Infrastructure

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) supported the development of a 315 MWac solar power plant, the Banka Solar Power Project, located 120 km south of Baku in Azerbaijan’s Neftchala District. In line with ADB’s Safeguard Policy and Climate Risk Management Framework, a climate risk and geologic hazard screening was conducted. The initial assessment highlighted the need for a comprehensive Climate Risk Assessment (CRA).

BioTech Energy (Pvt) Ltd. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (BTE-SAF)

Country: Pakistan
Sector: Biodiesel Fuel Production

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) supported the development of a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production facility in Pakistan. The project will fund Bio Tech Energy (BTE), Sheikhupura to upscale their existing biodiesel facility to produce 200,000 tons per annum (TPA) of SAF using locally sourced waste oils as feedstock with Axens as technology providers and PT Istana Karang Laut (IKL) as the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction Management (EPCM) provider.

Road Network Improvement Project, Phase 2 (RNIP2) – Improvement of Provincial Road 3PV12 and Cross Border Facility

Country: Cambodia
Sector: Climate Resilient Infrastructure

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) supported the Cambodia Road Network Improvement Project Phase 2 (RNIP2), which aimed to enhance Provincial Road 3PV12 and construct a Cross Border Facility (CBF) in Prey Veng and Kandal provinces. These developments are focused on strengthening Cambodia’s infrastructure, facilitating trade operations, and improving overall connectivity. Provincial Road 3PV12 involved upgrading a 6.4-kilometer section, including the construction of a 250-meter bridge, while the CBF will support modernized trade operations in Kandal.

Tamtam Submarine Cable Project

Country: Vanuatu
Sector: Communication Infrastructure

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) assisted TAMTAM Submarine Cable Project, which involved the design, deployment, and commissioning of a 411-kilometer submarine fiber-optic cable system connecting Port Vila, Vanuatu, and Lifou, New Caledonia by Alcatel Submarine Cables (ASN). The project addressed the urgent need for reliable telecommunications, climate adaptation mechanisms, and disaster risk management.

Karur Wind Power Project (Part of Tata Group Decarbonization Project)

Country: India
Sector: Renewable Energy Infrastructure

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) aims to assist the development of a Wind Power Project in Karur District of Tamil Nadu State in India. It is one of the three outputs of the IND: Tata Group Decarbonization Project. TATA Power Renewable Energy Limited (TPREL), through SPV TP Vardhaman Surya Limited (TPVSL), plans to develop a 198 MW wind power project in Tiruppur and Karur districts, Tamil Nadu. 

Services Provided – Climate Risk Assessment

  • Provision of technical assistance using the BB1&2 assessment criteria of Joint MDB Methodological Framework for the Assessment of Paris Alignment and ADB’s Climate Risk Assessment Framework.
  • Formulation of a comprehensive Climate Risk Assessment reports for each project following the IPCC risk assessment framework and ADB’s Climate Risk Assessment Framework. It established climate-related vulnerability and risks, identified exposure to physical climate risks, and provided climate resilient measures to improve climate risk management by all stakeholders. The report consists of the following sections:
        a. Detailed historical analysis of pervasive hazards at the project site/area along with assessing projections of the selected hazards using online tools.
        b. The exposure and vulnerability assessment of each of the project components to all prevalent hazards.
        c. A Risk Matrix that classified the risk to each component by each hazard as extreme/moderate/low based on the vulnerability and exposure     
            assessment.
        d. A comprehensive list of adaptation measures tailored for each hazard faced by each component along with a timeline for adopting these measures.

Building Institutional Capacity: Delivering Climate Solutions under Operational Priority 3 of Strategy - ADB-54176-001

Pakistan

Objectives:

  • Support Government of KPK to build capability to integrate climate change into development planning for Climate Adaptation and Mitigation.
  • Support the Government of Pakistan to understand the urban sector development patterns in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) (province in the northwestern region of Pakistan) from the perspective of its regional economic growth.

Services Provided:

  • Conducted a review of national and provincial policies, strategies and dialogs with government, development partners, private sector and other stakeholders to identify incentives and scaling up climate adaptation and mitigation in urban investments.
  • Formulated comprehensive inception reports for potential sectors for investment in urban sectors for adaptation and mitigation.
  • Formulated three project concept notes each for climate change adaptation (Rooftop rainwater harvesting, Installation of Green Roofs, Urban Forest Development Using the Miyawaki Technique) and mitigation (Clean and Efficient Cookstoves Landfill Gas-to Electricity, Green Hydrogen Production) project entailing project rationale, project areas/districts, recommended design and methodology, and financial breakdown.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Climate Investment Plan

Pakistan

Objectives:

To develop the KP-Climate Investment Plan.

Services Provided:

  • Analyzed international and domestic climate finance streams such as grants, loans, bonds, carbon markets etc. relevant to Pakistan and mapped funding requirements with national and international climate commitments for better alignment and mobilization.
  • Identified Pakistan’s climate finance needs based on vulnerability, policy objectives, and sectoral focus areas (NDCs, NAP, NCCP).
  • Conducted stakeholder consultations with policymakers, financial institutions, and development partners to refine finance strategies.
  • Examined barriers to accessing climate finance, including institutional capacity gaps, financial structuring hurdles, and policy limitations.
  • Developed framework to draft project proposals in accordance to the Global Climate Fund (GCF) guidelines.