Between Data and Drama: Pakistan’s Meteorological Disconnect undermines Reliability and Response

Pakistan is currently grappling with yet another season of destructive flooding, though the official numbers for losses and damages will come once the monsoon spell is over. Reports from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) mention that the recent floods since 26 June 2025 across multiple provinces have resulted in 289 deaths, 698 injuries, 1,580 house-damages (539 fully, 1,041 partially), 372 livestock deaths, and infrastructure damages like 53 bridges and 650 km of roads. This already is turning into another disastrous event for the country.

In the immediate aftermath, voices from the opposition, affectees, and media quickly blamed the government for its lack of preparedness. The government, in response, adopted a ‘dust under the carpet’ approach, blaming climate change without conducting any scientific climate attribution study. While this narrative might offer political cover, it fails to address the systemic weaknesses that keep repeating themselves.

Additional to this, there also appeared an unfortunate but alarming controversy of heavy rainfall in Chakwal on 17th July that reveals a deeper institutional crisis: Pakistan’s fragmented weather governance is ill-equipped to respond to climate extremes, both in science and narrative. What unfolded following the extreme precipitation event in northern Punjab was not just a miscommunication, rather a breakdown in credibility, coordination, and climate intelligence.

Cloudburst or Confusion? The Chakwal Rainfall Controversy

For the context of the event, a simple web search of ‘Pakistan 2025 flooding’ brings up hundreds of references to a cloudburst in Chakwal, with claims of 423mm of rain in 24 hours on 17th July, reported by both national and international media. Yet, none of these links specifically refer to the actual source.

This figure of 423mm originated from a private start-up, called Weather-Walay, founded in 2021 and based in Islamabad. It operates a network of 300 Automated Weather Stations across Pakistan. On a state-owned media channel, the CEO of Weather-Walay mentioned over 400 mm of rainfall in Chakwal in under 10 hours.

PMD’s Rejection

Importantly, this number was not verified by the offocially released figures by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the mandated national authority for this matter. Their Director General Meher Sahibzada, on multiple public forums, urged the media and officials to rely exclusively on PMD-verified data, warning against the promulgation of unverified figures, especially those like the 423mm claim from the private weather networks, which do not meet PMD’s scientific validation standards. Ironically, Mr. DG had recently attended a climate change conference as a panelist, organized by the same start-up where other state ministers and parliamentarians were also present. This clear mis-match of conduct creates a confusion regarding reliability of media reporting sources for robust meteorological data, that further informs immediate official response and relief efforts during such calamities.

Despite these clear statements, the unverified 423 mm figure was rapidly amplified and cited by the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Chief Minister of Punjab, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), the European Commission’s humanitarian arm (DG ECHO), and several major international media outlets. Eventually, PMD released an official statement categorically rejecting widely circulated claims of 423mm rainfall and the occurrence of a cloudburst in Chakwal on July 17, 2025. According to PMD data, only 142mm of rain was officially recorded on that particular day in Chakwal and there was no evidence whatsoever of a cloudburst event.

NDMA situation reports although confirm significant precipitation and some damages linked to this particular event in Chakwal, but does not corroborate the exaggerated 423mm rainfall figure, hence supporting PMD’s position. This particular episode is a clear manifestation of how the absence of a proper coordination framework for sharing accurate weather data can allow misinformation cascading into both national policy responses and international media reporting.

A Crisis of Meteorological Governance

Scientific evidence supports the need for strong public-private cooperation in combating climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has also repeatedly emphasized the significance of well structured public-private cooperation, that should be grounded in data sharing and interoperability. However, the disconnect between PMD’s rigorously validated observational records and the rainfall figures with cloudburst claims by private weather startups, and further promoted by sensationalist media, reveals a dangerous fragmentation in Pakistan’s early warning and climate information systems that is essential to inform future disaster management.

Regardless of who was correct in this specific case, the lack of coordination on such a high-profile event is alarming. It reveals the fragility of Pakistan’s early warning systems in the current climate and the risks posed by the lack of regulatory standards, that then allows parallel data ecosystems to flourish unchecked, leaving the door open for miscommunication, erosion of public trust, and vulnerability in both domestic disaster response and global climate negotiations

Damage to Pakistan’s International Credibility

This lack of coordination is not trivial. PMD is the officially mandated authority for weather advisories and maintains observatories in accordance with World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards. Its data feeds into global products that influence everything from risk models to climate finance eligibility. A mismatch between official data and political narratives can damage Pakistan’s international credibility, particularly under mechanisms like the new Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) under the UNFCCC.

A reasonably valid question may arise: how did this information about a cloudburst and over 400mm of rainfall in Chakwal reach the Prime Minister and international agencies without PMD’s endorsement? A significant share of the blame lies with Pakistan’s mainstream media, which often prioritizes sensationalism over verification. In the race to break stories, many outlets failed to cross-check with PMD and instead relied on unauthenticated sources. This trend is compounded by the frequent appearance of pseudo-experts on primetime television and other media outlets, offering opinions and solutions without validated credentials in meteorology or climate science.

Climate communication demands relevant expertise and responsibility. Elevating voices without scientific training risks distorting public understanding and undermining evidence-based policy. Climate change is too serious a challenge to leave in the hands of under-qualified.

An Opportunity for Reform

While this event exposed Pakistan’s vulnerability in terms of inter-agency coordination, it also provides an opportunity for reform. Rather than resisting the role of private actors in weather services, the government should create a structured framework that supports validation, integration, and regulatory oversight. Media organizations must also commit to ethical, verified climate reporting, for the sake of both domestic awareness and global credibility.

There is an urgent need for a transparent and interoperable weather data governance framework in Pakistan that not-only should harmonize public and private systems and strengthen their partnership, but should also mandate validation protocols that further support robust scientific evidence and protect the integrity of climate communication. Media outlets should also bear a responsibility to cross-check facts with authoritative sources, particularly before broadcasting information that shapes national narratives and international perceptions. Anything less puts lives, livelihoods, and legitimacy at risk.