Accelerating Climate Ambition
The Conference of the Parties, an annual global tradition for concerted efforts towards climate action, just concluded in Belém, Brazil. COP30 follows a grim year where the observed global mean surface temperatures and GHG emissions soared to record high values as compared to pre-industrial times. Conversely, it also marks the decadal anniversary of the iconic COP21, where the bible of climate action, the Paris Agreement, was adopted under decision 1/CP.21. The landmark treaty has paved the way for concerted global action, with 195 parties taking on the existential challenge to limit global warming well below 2°C and to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. COP 30 decision text, global mutirão, reiterates this 1.5 °C ambition and encourages the parties to enhance enabling environments domestically and internationally.
At the heart of the Paris Agreement, mandated by Article 4.2, Parties have to represent their domestic mitigation targets in their successive nationally determined contribution (NDCs). This core principle of progression with the “highest possible ambition” (HPA), mandated by Article 4.3, is meant to accelerate climate action, considering the codified principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR). CBDR mandates developed countries to take the lead in mitigation efforts with economy-wide emission cuts, while developing countries enhance efforts as they grow. HPA requirement, however, is increasingly viewed not just as rhetoric but as a legal and moral obligation. The International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) advisory opinion, “obligations of states in respect of climate change”, states that the Party’s HPA must be capable of making an adequate contribution to the collective achievement of holding global warming below 1.5 °C.
As of November 24, 118 countries, representing 73% of the global emissions, have submitted their NDCs. The UNFCCC’s 2025 NDC Synthesis Report takes stock of countries’ latest climate pledges and notes improvements in terms of economic breadth and the Parties’ uptake of the outputs of the Global Stocktake (GST) in their NDCs. The report estimates emissions’ reduction in 2035 by about 17% below 2019 levels under the new NDCs and by a mere 19-24% below 2019 levels with their complete implementation, including conditional elements. It is important to note that these estimates have been drawn from a small dataset of 64 Parties’ NDCs, representing only 30% of the global GHG emissions in 2019. Overall, these findings are a sobering reminder of shortfalls in the required action.
With the conclusion of COP 30, the message from Belém is one of intent: tripling adaptation finance by 2035, reaffirming scaling climate finance to $1.3 trillion/year by 2035, and launching the Global Implementation Accelerator, although voluntary.
The IPCC estimates GHG emission reduction of 60% by 2035, relative to 2019 levels, to align with the 1.5?°C limit. In other words, current pledges achieve approximately a quarter of the cuts needed, implying a dangerous temperature rise if ambition isn’t increased. However, the Paris Agreement reflects tangible proof of action. Currently, the global average temperature is projected to rise by 2.5 to 2.9 °C by 2100, if countries stick to current policies, as compared to a 3.8 °C projected rise in the absence of the agreement. Considering Pakistan, which is already facing the brunt of climate impacts at the current level of warming of 1.34°C above pre-industrial levels, a 3.8°C rise would be catastrophic. With the last decade deemed as the warmest decade on record, an increment in ambition for achieving net zero, by both developed and developing countries, including Pakistan, has never been more imperative or urgent. Domestically, an illustrative demonstration of ambitious action despite economic and climate stresses is reflected in Pakistan’s latest NDC.
Pakistan’s third NDC commits to cutting projected business-as-usual greenhouse emissions (2559 MtCO?e) by 50% (1,280 MtCO?e) by 2035. This target is split into 17% unconditional reduction through Pakistan’s own resources and policies, and an additional 33% conditional reduction dependent on international support. However, Pakistan’s NDC does not strengthen its 2030 target and estimates an emission rise of 750 and 466 MtCO?e if unconditional and conditional targets are achieved, respectively, by 2035 relative to 2030 emission targets. Acknowledging its acute vulnerabilities and the capital-intensive transition, it estimates a capital of $565.7 billion by 2035 to implement its climate actions, the evidentiary backing of which remains unclear. Despite some contentious points, Pakistan’s message is clear: it is willing to pursue ambitious cuts and integrate climate in its development, but it cannot succeed unaided.
With the conclusion of COP 30, the message from Belém is that of intent: tripling adaptation finance by 2035, reaffirmation of scaling climate finance to $1.3 trillion/year by 2035, and launching the Global Implementation Accelerator, although voluntary. Pakistan now stands at the crossroads-it could either scale up domestic efforts to materialise its ambitious targets through efficient planning and resource mobilisation or keep facing the brunt of climate change impacts if it fails to make tangible progress on its projected targets. Pakistan’s pleas for grant-based climate finance from developed states will be moot if it fails to aggressively pursue climate action to create resilience and demonstrate its intentions for the achievement of Paris goals.
The 1.5?°C limit is a lifeline for vulnerable nations like Pakistan, while a north star for all. Preserving it will require unprecedented and unwavering ambition both globally and domestically alike, as iterated in the global mutirão.
The writer is part of Weather and Climate Services (WCS), a research-focused independent think-tank
